Cybersecurity

Post-Quantum Migration Checklist Before the End-2026 CBOM Deadline

TuniCyberLabs Team
6 min read

The EU's post-quantum roadmap makes a cryptographic inventory the first milestone, with reporting pointing to end-2026. Here is a practical CBOM, harvest-now-decrypt-later triage, and hybrid ML-KEM TLS checklist you can start this quarter.

What is a CBOM, and why does the EU want one by the end of 2026?

A CBOM (Cryptographic Bill of Materials) is a machine-readable inventory of every cryptographic asset your systems use: algorithms, key lengths, certificates, protocols and libraries. The EU coordinated post-quantum roadmap treats this inventory as the first milestone, with reporting pointing to end-2026 for critical systems. Treat the exact dates as provisional and verify them against primary EU sources.

  • Where a CBOM lives. CycloneDX 1.6 extends the SBOM format with a cryptographic-assets component type covering algorithm, certificate, protocol and related-crypto-material. A CBOM is effectively an SBOM specialized for cryptography.
  • The EU driver. Commission Recommendation (EU) 2024/1101 and the NIS Cooperation Group post-quantum roadmap push member states and critical-infrastructure operators toward inventory-first transition planning. Exact deadlines differ between documents and are still moving.
  • Why inventory comes first. You cannot migrate what you cannot see, and most cryptography hides inside TLS terminators, VPNs, PKI, code signing, databases, HSMs, firmware and third-party SaaS.

Which of my systems are actually broken by a quantum computer?

Public-key cryptography is the casualty. A large fault-tolerant quantum computer running Shor's algorithm breaks RSA, Diffie-Hellman and elliptic-curve schemes (ECDH and ECDSA), the backbone of TLS, VPNs, PKI and code signing. Symmetric cryptography such as AES and hash functions such as SHA-2 are only weakened by Grover's algorithm and survive by increasing key sizes.

  • Asymmetric means replace. RSA-2048, ECDSA P-256, ECDH and classic Diffie-Hellman all need post-quantum replacements: ML-KEM for key exchange and ML-DSA or SLH-DSA for signatures.
  • Symmetric means upsize. Move AES-128 to AES-256 and prefer SHA-384 or SHA-512 for long-lived integrity. Grover's algorithm gives only a quadratic speedup, so doubling key length restores the margin.
  • No quantum computer breaks this today. No cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) exists publicly, but migration takes years, which is precisely the problem.

What is harvest-now-decrypt-later, and how do I triage for it?

Harvest-now-decrypt-later (HNDL) is the threat where adversaries record encrypted traffic and stored ciphertext today, then decrypt it once a quantum computer arrives. Triage with Mosca's inequality: if your data's required secrecy lifetime plus your migration time exceeds the time until a quantum computer, that data is already exposed. Prioritize long-lived secrets.

  • Mosca's inequality: if X (how long data must stay secret) plus Y (migration time) is greater than Z (time to a CRQC), you must act now.
  • High-shelf-life data first: health and biometric records, state secrets, intellectual property, root CA private keys and long-term contracts, anything with a 10-to-25-year confidentiality horizon.
  • Ephemeral data is lower priority: a session token that expires within the hour is not a realistic HNDL target and should not crowd out your migration budget.
  • A deeper treatment lives in Harvest Now, Decrypt Later: Your 2026 Post-Quantum Migration Plan.

How do I build a cryptographic inventory that is not a spreadsheet graveyard?

Automate discovery, then keep the inventory as code. Combine source scanning, dependency and binary analysis, network and TLS scanning, and certificate discovery, then emit a CycloneDX CBOM you regenerate in CI. A static spreadsheet rots within a sprint; a generated CBOM tracks reality and feeds the crypto-agility work that follows.

  • Tooling: OWASP CBOMkit and the sonar-cryptography plugin for source scanning; testssl.sh or sslscan for negotiated suites; certificate inventory from your CA, ACME and Certificate Transparency logs; dependency scanners for library versions such as OpenSSL, BoringSSL and Bouncy Castle.
  • Record per asset: algorithm, key length, purpose, protocol, owning service, data sensitivity and rotation path.
  • Keep it continuous: regenerate the CBOM on every build, diff it, and alert whenever new RSA or ECC usage appears.
  • The SBOM foundations are covered in The Software Supply Chain in 2026: SBOMs, Provenance, and the CRA Reckoning.

What is ML-KEM, and how do I turn on hybrid TLS safely?

ML-KEM (FIPS 203, derived from CRYSTALS-Kyber) is NIST's standardized key-encapsulation mechanism for quantum-safe key exchange. The safe deployment path is hybrid: pair it with a classical curve so you are never worse off than today. In TLS 1.3 that means the X25519MLKEM768 group, already default in major browsers and CDNs.

  • Why hybrid. If ML-KEM has an implementation flaw, the classical X25519 half still protects you; if a quantum computer later breaks X25519, the ML-KEM half holds. France's ANSSI and Germany's BSI both favor hybrid for the transition.
  • How to enable it. OpenSSL 3.5 ships ML-KEM and the X25519MLKEM768 hybrid group; enable it at your TLS terminator, whether that is a load balancer, reverse proxy or CDN. Cloudflare, AWS and current browsers already negotiate it.
  • Mind the handshake size. ML-KEM public keys and ciphertexts add roughly one to two kilobytes to the TLS handshake, so test latency-sensitive and constrained embedded clients; for most web traffic the added round-trip overhead is negligible.
  • Signatures come next. ML-DSA (FIPS 204) and SLH-DSA (FIPS 205) cover authentication, but post-quantum certificate chains are still maturing, so plan them separately from key exchange.

What about code signing, firmware, and long-lived signatures?

Signatures that must stay valid for years, such as firmware, secure boot, software updates and document signing, need special care because you cannot easily re-sign deployed artifacts. Use hash-based signatures: stateless SLH-DSA (FIPS 205) where operational simplicity matters, or stateful LMS and XMSS (NIST SP 800-208) for firmware with disciplined state management.

  • Long device lifecycles. Firmware and secure boot outlive most servers, so a forged future update is a real HNDL-style risk; hash-based signatures rest on conservative security assumptions.
  • Stateful schemes are unforgiving. LMS and XMSS require never reusing a one-time key; a single state-management error collapses the security, so many teams prefer stateless SLH-DSA despite larger signatures.
  • Plan the PKI. Dual-sign with classical and post-quantum algorithms during transition, pilot ML-DSA chains, and track your vendor CA support. See Provenance You Can Prove: SLSA, Sigstore, and Policy-as-Code CI/CD.

What does a realistic PQC migration checklist look like before end-2026?

Aim to finish discovery and start hybrid pilots by end-2026, not to be fully post-quantum. A defensible position is a complete cryptographic inventory, HNDL triage done, a crypto-agility refactor underway, hybrid TLS live on external endpoints, and vendor roadmaps collected. Full migration realistically extends toward 2030 to 2035.

  • 1. Inventory: generate a CBOM across code, infrastructure, certificates, firmware and third parties.
  • 2. Triage: apply Mosca's inequality and rank systems by data shelf life.
  • 3. Crypto-agility: abstract algorithms behind interfaces and remove hardcoded RSA and ECC, as detailed in Crypto-Agility by Design: Engineering for the Post-Quantum Era.
  • 4. Hybrid TLS: enable X25519MLKEM768 on external endpoints and, where feasible, the internal service mesh.
  • 5. Signatures and PKI: pilot ML-DSA and plan SLH-DSA or LMS for firmware and updates.
  • 6. Vendors: require CBOMs and post-quantum timelines in procurement and contracts.
  • 7. Governance: align to the NIST IR 8547 draft (deprecating RSA and ECC toward 2035) and NSA CNSA 2.0, and verify EU deadlines against primary sources.

How TuniCyberLabs helps

We run post-quantum migration as an evidence-producing engineering program. TuniCyberLabs generates your first CBOM, triages HNDL exposure with Mosca's inequality, refactors for crypto-agility, and enables hybrid TLS such as X25519MLKEM768 without breaking clients. We serve the EU and North Africa, with engineering delivered from Tunisia and standards-aligned documentation your auditors and customers will accept.

To scope a cryptographic inventory and a realistic PQC roadmap, explore our security services.

TAGS
post-quantum cryptographyCBOMML-KEMhybrid TLScrypto-agilityharvest now decrypt laterPQC migrationFIPS 203

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a CBOM?

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A CBOM, or Cryptographic Bill of Materials, is a machine-readable inventory of every cryptographic asset in a system: algorithms, key lengths, certificates, protocols and libraries. It is typically expressed in CycloneDX 1.6, which adds a cryptographic-assets component type. A CBOM is the first milestone of post-quantum migration because you cannot replace cryptography you have not located.

What is ML-KEM and is it the same as Kyber?

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ML-KEM is the Module-Lattice Key-Encapsulation Mechanism standardized by NIST as FIPS 203 in 2024. It is derived from CRYSTALS-Kyber, so the two are closely related, but ML-KEM is the finalized standard with defined parameter sets ML-KEM-512, 768 and 1024. For TLS, it is deployed in the hybrid X25519MLKEM768 group rather than on its own.

What is harvest-now-decrypt-later?

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Harvest-now-decrypt-later is an attack strategy where adversaries capture and store encrypted data today, expecting to decrypt it once a cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists. It matters most for long-lived secrets such as health records, intellectual property and root CA keys. Mosca's inequality helps triage: if secrecy lifetime plus migration time exceeds time-to-quantum, the data is already at risk.

Should I deploy pure ML-KEM or hybrid TLS?

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Deploy hybrid for the transition. The X25519MLKEM768 group combines classical X25519 with ML-KEM-768, so a flaw in either component alone does not break the handshake. European agencies including France's ANSSI and Germany's BSI recommend hybrid schemes. OpenSSL 3.5, major browsers and CDNs already support X25519MLKEM768, making it the pragmatic default for external endpoints today.

When does the EU require post-quantum migration?

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The EU has not fixed a single binding date. Commission Recommendation (EU) 2024/1101 and the NIS Cooperation Group roadmap push an inventory-first approach, with public reporting pointing to end-2026 for cryptographic inventories of critical systems and later milestones toward 2030 and 2035. Timelines are still shifting, so verify against primary EU and national sources before planning.

What algorithms replace RSA and ECC after quantum?

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For key establishment, ML-KEM (FIPS 203) replaces RSA key transport and ECDH. For signatures, ML-DSA (FIPS 204) is the general-purpose choice, with SLH-DSA (FIPS 205), a stateless hash-based scheme, for long-lived signing such as firmware. Stateful LMS and XMSS (NIST SP 800-208) are also options for firmware. Symmetric AES and SHA-2 stay, just with larger sizes.

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